Nashville Market Report Q3 & Q4 2020

Nashville Market Report Q3 & Q4 2020

Q3 | Q4

2020

G R E AT E R

CON T EN T S

04

OUR VI S ION

06

MARKET TRENDS

12

MARKET EXPERTS

20

NEIGHBORHOODS

22

EAST NASHVILLE

28

DOWNTOWN / SOBRO

34

THE GULCH / MIDTOWN

40

HILLSBORO / WEST END

46

BERRY HILL / MELROSE

52

GERMANTOWN

58

GREEN HILLS / FOREST HILLS

64

BELLE MEADE

70

THE NATIONS / SYLVAN PARK

76

MADI SON / HERMITAGE

82

RUTHERFORD COUNTY

88

WILLIAMSON COUNTY

96

FEATURED LI STINGS

104

F INAL WORD

OUR V I S I ON

For many of us, 2020 brought more change and adjustment than any year we can remember. Has there ever been a year like it? There’s no doubting it, life changed across the country, and we felt that change strum the heartstrings of Music City. For an entire year, Nashville took its music indoors. We still came together as we “Nashvillians” always do, but we kept to isolated, household circles. We lived the songs of our lives from our homes while we prepared meals for our families, advanced our careers via video calls, exercised and socialized from home, and got our fresh air on socially-distanced neighborhood walks. In 2020, Nashville residents put more time and energy into finding out what it meant to be at home. That might be why the city’s real estate market experienced an unprecedented growth period in 2020, despite the challenges and additional hurdles that the year brought with it. The desire to make a house a home took on new meaning and our Compass team could not be more thrilled to help our neighbors in our communities achieve their dream home. At Compass, we help people buy and sell homes. That may be the beautiful simplicity of our mission statement, but we’ve found that Compass is about so much more than that. Every day we take inspiration not just in a simple real estate transaction, but in what it means to help a family arrive in the perfect home, a home that is ideally suited for them. We help people find their place in the world, and that place always begins with a home. We’re here to help you map out plans for your future. To help you get started, consider this report a gift of valuable information on the Greater Nashville real estate market. When you’re ready to buy or sell a home in Nashville, we’ll help you find not just a house, but the perfect cornerstone of your future life.

MARK E T T R END S

IT ’S A SELLER’S MARKET

71% 83%

of our agents say there were fewer sellers in the fall due to COVID-19

of our agents say the trend for 2021 will be a strong seller’s market with limited inventory and higher prices

RELOCATION, RELOCATION, RELOCATION

74% 80% 91%

of our agents did 3+ relocation transactions in the second half of 2020

of out-of-state buyers were from the west coast

of our agents say out-of-town buyers will cause residential prices to increase

Source: January 2021 Survey of Compass Nashville Real Estate Agents

GREATER NASHVILLE INSIGHTS

37,272 New Listings Q3+Q4

-8.45% % Change from Q1+Q2

33,007 Sales Q3+Q4

31.60% % Change from Q1+Q2

$300K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 53 Days on Market Q3+Q4

6.95% % Change from Q1+Q2 -12.74% % Change from Q1+Q2

MARK E T E X P E RT S

“It’s no secret that Middle Tennessee is a hot spot for work related moves thanks to our business-friendly climate, which attracts companies from all over the world. Recently, Tennessee was named the #1 destination for COVID-19 moves. This has created greater demand on an already tight supply of homes. Buyers must be prepared to compete for their desired home and multiple offer situa- tions are becoming the new normal. Homes sell quickly and for top dollar as competition drives prices up. This trend is expected to continue into 2021.”

— GA BR I E LA L I RA

“We shouldn’t be surprised by the explosive growth in Music City. Nashville is blessed with four seasons and plenty of job opportunities in a variety of industries from music to healthcare to automotive to technology and many more. This business-friendly city has no state income tax and is home to several Fortune 500 companies and top-ranking universities. Retirees have access to excellent health care while enjoying & relaxing in several parks and lakes. I expect to see the trend of higher demand, low inventory and rising prices to continue in 2021.” — V I N I MOOL CHANDAN I

“We have witnessed trends that we would’ve never envisioned pre-Covid. Employers had to reinvent themselves under the work from home environment. Buyers are moving more than ever to the suburbs and those in the suburbs are moving rural. Today, homes need to be versatile with space for a gym, school, office, etc. Tennessee is known for its tax policies. People are moving here for its overall cost of living and quality of life. Seeing that listings decreased, while sold transactions increased means we’re a continued constraint of supply with high demand. With the current low rate environment and some cities discussing tax hikes, I believe people will continue to shift in 2021.”

— M I CHA E L OL I V E I RA

“The outlook for our Nashville market continues to be really positive. This crazy global pandemic is bringing buyers from both coasts and the Midwest in droves, all looking for our wonderful quality of life and a more affordable cost of living. The great news for my sellers is that homes of all kinds are being viewed, swooned over and sold in greater numbers than ever. It’s been a great opportunity to recognize what these buyers are looking for and to prepare my seller’s homes for maximum exposure and appeal.”

— K I M H ENDE RS ON

“The quarterly numbers tell the story of low supply. Days on market shrunk by almost a week. While sellers are reluctant to list, buyers act fast to get under contract with some waiving inspections or even appraisals and paying far over list price. New construction is more popular than ever, but lot & material costs steadily increase, raising new home prices. Investors buying & out of state transplants relocating are definitely having an impact. Lessen liability, maximize profit and get help navigating offers with a strong Realtor.”

— T E RRY CART E R

N E I GH B ORHOOD S

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E AS T NAS HV I L L E Historic, thriving, electric, artsy, and hip, these words describe one of the most spell-binding, memorable neighborhoods in Nashville. You’ll find wonderful experiences, tasty food, stunning murals, and expansive park spaces in East Nashville. East Nashville has a strength and resilience that is desirable to newcomers. From the devastating blow of the March tornado to the challenges of COVID-19 and the Christmas bombing nearby, East Nashville has shown its solidarity as a community that helps each other out, a neighborhood that comes together during challenging times. In the last six months of 2020, new listings increased by 29% while numbers for homes sold went up 43%.

2 3

EAST NASHVILLE INSIGHTS

677 New Listings Q3+Q4

29.45% % Change from Q1+Q2

501 Sales Q3+Q4

43.55% % Change from Q1+Q2

$461K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 43 Days on Market Q3+Q4

4.58% % Change from Q1+Q2 -0.38% % Change from Q1+Q2

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2 5

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“East Nashville has seen and continues to see a lot of aggressive growth which doesn’t surprise me! The area has always had its own special character and allure, making it a top neighborhood choice in Nashville. In addition to the proximity to downtown Nashville and the airport, people love the sense of community here. I’ve been an East Nashville resident for years, so I have seen firsthand this area having the perfect balance of commercial growth and neighborhood charm.”

— S TAR I A C LARK

2 7

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D OWN TOWN / S OBRO Colloquially titled “SoBro” (South of Broadway), this neighborhood is the gem of downtown Nashville. Home to major attractions like the Music City Center, Omni Hotel, The Southern, Etch, and Pinewood Social, here you will find urban living with all the best 21st-century amenities. And did we mention SoBro is just a short walk from Broadway honky-tonks? With consistent development and growth, it’s no surprise that SoBro has seen numbers increase in the last six months of 2020 for both new listings and sold listings.

2 9

DOWNTOWN/SOBRO INSIGHTS

152 New Listings Q3+Q4

36.94% % Change from Q1+Q2

58 Sales Q3+Q4

23.40% % Change from Q1+Q2

$482K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 79 Days on Market Q3+Q4

21.13% % Change from Q1+Q2 16.71% % Change from Q1+Q2

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“The Downtown/SoBro market is unique! Over the last 15 years, what we have seen in Nashville’s urban market is that new inventory brings new buyers. Downtown developments like Nashville Yards, Four Seasons, and 5th + Broad bring a mix of residential and retail so as residential inventory rises so does the infrastructure and amenities to support it such as grocery stores, shopping, and restaurants. The increase in listings/inventory simultaneously increases the buyer pool – which means more options for buyers and stronger prices for sellers!”

— M I CH E L L E MA LD ONAD O

3 3

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T H E GU L CH / M I DTOWN Hip, cool, and modern, The Gulch is a perfect medley of top notch urban living, stylish boutiques, upscale offices, fantastic restaurants, and one-of-a-kind entertainment venues. Once the site of Nashville’s bustling railroad, this neighborhood has been developed and modernized to create a trendy, walkable, popular Nashville destination. New listings for residential properties are being added to the market in The Gulch and Midtown, giving savvy investors and prospective homeowners alike options to choose from. Buyers should move fast though, as median home prices increased 16% in the second half of 2020.

3 5

THE GULCH/MIDTOWN INSIGHTS

410 New Listings Q3+Q4

8.18% % Change from Q1+Q2

208 Sales Q3+Q4

6.67% % Change from Q1+Q2

$534K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 63 Days on Market Q3+Q4

16.50% % Change from Q1+Q2 21.36% % Change from Q1+Q2

3 6

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“No surprise, demand remains high for the HOT Gulch/Midtown area. While average days on market trended upward, so did the median sales price, increasing a whopping 16.5% to $534,000. Buyers favor a turnkey property, and sellers who chose to undertake cosmetic renovations during the lockdown have reaped the benefits with a higher sales price per square foot. Looking to 2021, expect prices to remain strong, inventory tight, and savvy, informed buyers beginning to push back if the market gets overheated.”

— L I SA P E E B L E S

39

4 0

H I LL S BORO/ WE S T END

Close to famed universities like Vanderbilt, Belmont, and Lipscomb, Hillsboro/West End combines the convenience of modern living in a major city with the unmatched nostalgia of a historic college town. Hillsboro/West End is also walking distance to Music Row, Belcourt Theatre, several parks, and plenty of shopping opportunities, giving residents everything they need to live the good life, all within a few blocks of home. The average number of days spent on-market for homes in Hillsboro/West End dropped by 22%, with most homes in the area barely surfacing on the market for more than six weeks before they sold.

41

HILLSBORO/WEST END INSIGHTS

228 New Listings Q3+Q4

5.56% % Change from Q1+Q2

154 Sales Q3+Q4

23.20% % Change from Q1+Q2

$672K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 46 Days on Market Q3+Q4

12.91% % Change from Q1+Q2 -22.66% % Change from Q1+Q2

4 2

4 3

4 4

“The Hillsboro/West End area continues to show strong market activity with inventory moving rapidly and pricing continuing to rise. This neighborhood has always offered a unique mix of new builds, condos, renovations, and charming historical homes that offer a little something for everyone. Traditionally, we ease into the spring uptick of transactions, but we have already seen a flurry of activity early in 2021. With inventory at nearly half of where it should be and interest rates at record lows, I believe the market will remain extremely competitive through 2021 with no signs of softening.”

— JAM I E HAWK I N S CAS EY

4 5

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B E RRY H I L L / ME LRO S E A growing, vibrant neighborhood, Berry Hill/Melrose is known for its eclectic shops, vintage recording studios, famed music publishers, and locally-owned small businesses. Enjoy fine dining eateries like M.L. Rose, Hatti B’s Hot Chicken, and The Sutler Saloon. From charming cottage homes to new developments, a house feels like a home in Berry Hill/Melrose. A neighborhood that emanates a verve of life both unique and uplifting, it’s no surprise that new listings increased in the last six months of 2020, average days-on-market went down, and median home price climbed 25%. For prospective business owners, Berry Hill/Melrose is known for consistent new business growth each year.

47

BERRY HILL/MELROSE INSIGHTS

306 New Listings Q3+Q4

8.90% % Change from Q1+Q2

212 Sales Q3+Q4

55.88% % Change from Q1+Q2

$787K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 54 Days on Market Q3+Q4

25.54% % Change from Q1+Q2 -8.00% % Change from Q1+Q2

4 8

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“The Berry Hill/Melrose neighborhood is experiencing exciting yet challenging times with its low inventory and the surge of new residents moving into the area. We see record numbers in average sales prices, and the reduced inventory leads to multiple offer situations in all price points. With the recent addition of Publix in its urban core, the inflation of equity should remain healthy. Still, I believe there will be a three-to-six-month window before the vaccine’s effects are fully felt, leading to interest rates inching up and numbers normalizing.”

— MART HA MON T I E L - L EW I S

5 1

5 2

GE RMANTOWN

Incorporated into the city of Nashville in 1865, Germantown maintains its iconic history in its restored buildings, centennial houses, and verdant parks, all while embracing a charming, chic- modern appeal in its shops, restaurants, and recreational centers. Much like many other Nashville neighborhoods, Germantown is known for its strong sense of community, the solidarity of its residents, and the volunteer nature of locals. This sense of safety and togetherness is seen as highly desirable, particularly for new homeowners. In the last six months of 2020, new listings increased 15% in Germantown, and the number of homes sold went up 22%.

5 3

GERMANTOWN INSIGHTS

445 New Listings Q3+Q4

15.28% % Change from Q1+Q2

260 Sales Q3+Q4

26.64% % Change from Q1+Q2

$384K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 73 Days on Market Q3+Q4

0.57% % Change from Q1+Q2 -0.23% % Change from Q1+Q2

5 4

5 5

5 6

“Needless to say, a direct and devastating hit from the March tornado followed immediately by the Covid lockdown meant the first half of 2020 was atypically quiet in the Germantown housing market. The number of listings and sales picked up toward the end of the year, but it will likely be toward the middle of 2021 before we see Germantown truly soar again as buyers, post-Covid, rediscover how much they love the incomparable walkability and restaurant scene the neighborhood has to offer.”

— DAV I D KOE L L E I N

5 7

5 8

GRE EN H I LL S / FOR E S T H I LL S

Living in Green Hills/Forest Hills feels like stepping into a fairytale arbor setting. Though the neighborhood is close to luxury shopping districts, high-end retailers, famous restaurants, and excellent schools, the mature trees and forests in this region have been preserved and well-tended, offering a coveted setting of forested, private living right in the heart of Music City. Large, historic, and stunning inside and out, Green Hills/Forest Hills homes are highly sought after and prized among Nashville locals and visitors alike. In Q3/Q4 of 2020, average days-on- market decreased 14% while home prices increased 22%, indicating growing interest in the area.

59

GREEN HILLS/FOREST HILLS INSIGHTS

466 New Listings Q3+Q4

0.22% % Change from Q1+Q2

383 Sales Q3+Q4

38.77% % Change from Q1+Q2

$870K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 60 Days on Market Q3+Q4

22.49% % Change from Q1+Q2 -14.89% % Change from Q1+Q2

6 0

61

62

“Historically, we see our highest inventory in Q2 and highest number of homes sold in May, June and July. Instead, we saw a huge increase in home sales in Q3 and Q4. Our team doesn’t find this surprising considering what we were witnessing in the field with our buyers and sellers. With such lack of inventory, finding a great home at a reasonable price is very challenging for buyers. For our sellers, they’re enjoying the tough competition amongst buyers and home values at historic highs.”

— LAC EY N EWMAN & J ONAT HAN H E ARD

63

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B E L L E ME ADE

Given national recognition for famous attractions like the Belle Meade Plantation, Cheekwood Estate & Gardens, and Percy Warner Park, Belle Meade is further renowned for its stunning homes. This neighborhood was developed within the territory of the former historic Belle Meade plantation, hence why the suburban paradise features large lots, mature trees, quiet, winding streets, and a cozy, peaceful aura. Not surprising given the beauty and private nature of this neighborhood, new listings on-market increased 20%, and the number of homes sold in the third and fourth quarter of 2020 surged by 96%, indicating a rush of new buyers.

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BELLE MEADE INSIGHTS

52 New Listings Q3+Q4

20.93% % Change from Q1+Q2

49 Sales Q3+Q4

96.00% % Change from Q1+Q2

$1.33M Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 69 Days on Market Q3+Q4

-16.65% % Change from Q1+Q2 12.16% % Change from Q1+Q2

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“There has never been a better time to be a seller in Belle Meade. Clients relocating from other major metropolitan cities, especially those in California, have BIG budgets. Between Belle Meade’s luxurious homes, beautiful tree-lined streets, and close proximity to everything in Nashville, wealthy new residents are flocking to the area. We just closed on a landmark property in Belle Meade for nearly $8 million, which we were lucky enough to find off-market through our contacts with other top local agents, proving that a well-connected agent is mandatory if you’re buying in Belle Meade.”

— H E ARD N EWMAN T E AM

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T H E NAT I ON S / SY LVAN PARK

The Nations and Sylvan Park are two of the most desirable “up and coming” neighborhoods in Nashville. Sylvan Park features quiet, peaceful, well-kept residential blocks. The community is ideally positioned near prominent thoroughfares that feature great restaurants, large green spaces, historic buildings, and several direct lanes of travel into the city. The Nations has a history and culture of its own. Constantly evolving, always a new shop to check out or a new delicatessen to try, The Nations is a prominent destination for new Nashville businesses and homeowners alike. Average days-on-market decreased 16% in The Nations, reflecting a gradual increase in buyer demand.

7 1

THE NATIONS/SYLVAN PARK INSIGHTS

801 New Listings Q3+Q4

-14.61% % Change from Q1+Q2

651 Sales Q3+Q4

10.71% % Change from Q1+Q2

$434K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 63 Days on Market Q3+Q4

8.04% % Change from Q1+Q2 -16.00% % Change from Q1+Q2

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“For years, The Nations and Sylvan Park have been called the next 12 South, and that description is now starting to gain momentum as the Richland Farmers Market and other local businesses have flooded to these neighborhoods. The friendliness and walkability, coupled with affordability, has made the West side a popular place and I only see it gaining value and reputation moving forward.“

— ME GAN J E RN I GAN

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MAD I S ON/ HERM I TAGE

Just north of East Nashville, Madison is not only a great place to live, but also ideal for investing. The sooner the better too, because while homes are affordable compared to other Nashville neighborhoods, the median sale price is climbing. Just 15 minutes from downtown Nashville, Hermitage features unique attractions like Andrew Jackson’s Hermitage, The Hermitage Farm, Stones River Greenway, the Percy Priest Dam, and a panoply of parks, lakes, and rivers. While both Madison and Hermitage are growing in popularity, (and homes are spending fewer days-on-market as a result), each neighborhood has seen an increase in new listings, giving potential buyers options in choosing their dream home.

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MADISON/HERMITAGE INSIGHTS

928 New Listings Q3+Q4

10.21% % Change from Q1+Q2

790 Sales Q3+Q4

31.23% % Change from Q1+Q2

$278K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 45 Days on Market Q3+Q4

5.30% % Change from Q1+Q2 -12.38% % Change from Q1+Q2

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“Conveniently located to the heart of the city, Madison and Hermitage sit to the East and North East of Nashville. Fairly priced, people are drawn to these areas due to the convenience of water recreation on both lakes and the river, expansive greenways, some of the best shopping in Middle TN., and historical sites. We will continue to see huge growth in both areas in 2021.”

— RON HOD GE S & SA L LY BARK L EY

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RU T H E R FORD COUN T Y

A powerful magnet for new residents and businesses, Rutherford County is a part of everything that metropolitan Nashville has to offer but at a more affordable price point. Rapid development, a spike in sales from Q1/Q2 to Q3/Q4, and an eye for the aesthetics in urban design and planning has made “RuthCo” a modern-day suburbia, ideal for anyone who desires a comfortable life just outside the city. Rich in Tennessee history and culture, Rutherford County is also home to historic sites like Stones River National Battlefield, Oaklands Mansion, Bradley Academy Museum, Historic Cannonsburgh Village, and the Sam Davis Home and Museum.

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RUTHERFORD COUNTY INSIGHTS

4,874 New Listings Q3+Q4

-10.59% % Change from Q1+Q2

4,539 Sales Q3+Q4

31.03% % Change from Q1+Q2

$297K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 37 Days on Market Q3+Q4

4.83% % Change from Q1+Q2 -19.71% % Change from Q1+Q2

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“It is not surprising at all that Rutherford County continues to see growth in both sales volume and home values, and I do not expect 2021 to slow down in either of those categories. With interest rates remaining at record lows and inventory sitting at historically low levels, we should anticipate a very competitive 2021 market with the continuation of multiple offers on homes in all price ranges. New construction will continue to dominate the market as it currently accounts for nearly 70% of all home sales. Homebuyers will prioritize homes with home office spaces and outdoor living areas.”

— ME G VAN PAT T EN

8 6

“Rutherford homes are selling 10 days faster than 6 months ago. Prices are up $14k & inventory is down 10%, making it tough for homebuyers wanting low interest rates. We see buyer’s offer over asking price, reducing some of their contingencies, waiving appraisals, doing “as is” purchases & paying their own closing cost to win homes. The biggest surprise is still how low inventory is but I expect this to change as more people start to build. Some builders not accepting appraisal contingencies & building delays are occurring due to supply chain issues. Townhomes will be in high demand due to affordability.”

— T E RRY CART E R

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W I L L I AMS ON

COUN T Y

Out of the city but still just a short drive from it, Williamson County includes beautiful and historic areas like Franklin, Thompson’s Station, and Brentwood. County residents also enjoy smaller communities and a peaceful, rural lifestyle in Fairview, Nolensville, and Spring Hill. From county line to county line, this region is idyllic and peaceful, a rural paradise of rolling hills, farms, stables, and forested lands. The Natchez Trace Parkway runs right through Williamson County, offering unmatched scenery.

As Nashville grows, sales and median sale price in Williamson County increased in the last several months of 2020.

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WILLAMSON COUNTY INSIGHTS

4,047 New Listings Q3+Q4

-20.63% % Change from Q1+Q2

3,784 Sales Q3+Q4

45.76% % Change from Q1+Q2

$565K Median Sale Price Q3+Q4 51 Days on Market Q3+Q4

7.41% % Change from Q1+Q2 -8.36% % Change from Q1+Q2

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92

“2020 ended up being an incredible year in real estate as many people chose to relocate to our area. With the influx of buyers, we have seen a shortage of existing and new construction homes which has resulted in multiple offers on homes. With this, we are seeing values increased by 8% and the median price increased to $565k. 2021 will continue to be a healthy real estate market. However, the inventory shortage will continue to be a problem.”

— E R I N KRU E GE R

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“Despite the ongoing pandemic, Williamson County continues to be a very strong and competitive market. In the past, we looked at days on the market and now, some homes are under contract in hours. Buyers are continuing to move from out of state and most are willing to pay over list price to secure the property. I predict we will see an increase in median prices due to our consistently low inventory and the cost of new construction, but interest rates should remain low, making it a great time to purchase a home.”

— J ENN I F E R B I CK E RS TA F F

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