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CBSI-TL-MY 2017 Midyear Market Outlook
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2017 MIDYEAR MARKET OUTLOOK
2017 MIDYEAR MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET SUMMARY With the equity market at all-time highs, now is a good moment for clients to consider if they are comfortable with their equity exposure levels. Sluggish GDP growth in the first quarter is likely to pick up in the second half of the year. The economy is nearing full employment, which could put inflationary pressure on wages as the labor supply tightens. If Congressional gridlock persists, the inability to make political progress on business- friendly legislation could take the steam out of the economy.
MIDYEAR NUMBERS
2-2.5% 2017 U.S. GDP GROWTH FORECAST 9.7% S&P 500 YTD 4.3% 2017 MAY UNEMPLOYMENT 2.2% 10-YEAR U.S. TREASURY YIELD * 2.69% BLOOMBERG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE BOND INDEX YTD RETURN ** 4.05% BLOOMBERG BARCLAYS MUNICIPAL BOND INDEX YTD RETURN **
*AS OF 5/31/17 **AS OF 6/16/17
2017 MIDYEAR MARKET OUTLOOK
RISING SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES AND WASHINGTON POLITICAL CONTROVERSIES FAIL TO DISRUPT FINANCIAL MARKETS Despite ugly politics in Washington in the first half of 2017, the financial markets have behaved with remarkable stability. The ongoing efforts on tax reform, health care, regulatory reform, and the nation’s infrastructure will continue. All of these initiatives are on the negotiating table, but so far have encountered significant obstacles. Any progress in these politically charged areas would likely be a further positive influence on business confidence and future growth expectations. Even so, moderate underlying growth in the United States has continued to sustain the nearly eight-year-old economic expansion. Likewise, overseas economies and markets shrugged off political controversy and lingering conflicts, as generally positive >Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24
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