HOT|COOL NO. 1/2017 - "System Integration"

HOT|COOL NO. 1/2017 - "System Integration"

N0. 1 / 2017

INTERNATIONAL MAGAZINE ON DISTRICT HEATING AND COOLING

SYSTEM INTEGRATION

DBDH - direct access to district heating and cooling technology

www.dbdh.dk

CONTENTS

4 6 7 8

THE COLUMN

A PACKAGE CAME FOR US: SOME FIRST THOUGHTS ON THE EU’S NEW CLEAN ENERGY BUNDLE

INTRODUCTION TO 4GHD-PROJECTS

TOWARDS REALISTIC PRODUCTION PLANNING

10 12

DEVELOPMENT OF THE UK HEAT INTERFACE UNIT (HIU) TESTING REGIME

NEW ROLES OF CHPs IN THE TRANSITION TO A RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM STEAM CONVERSION IN COPENHAGEN

15

A FAIRY TALE OF 100% EFFICIENT USE OF RESOURCES - THE LIFE CYCLE OF A CITRUS FRUIT FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO DENMARK

18 21 23 26 28 30

THE SMART ENERGY SYSTEM INTEGRATES FLUCTUATING RENEWABLE ENERGY¨

SYSTEM INTEGRATION – COORDINATION ON ALL LEVELS

THE FUTURE OF DISTRICT HEATING AND COOLING NETWORKS - INTELLIGENT CONTROLLERS BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS

NEW MEMBERS

MEMBER COMPANY PROFILE: SILHORKO-EUROWATER

LIST OF MEMBERS

HOT|COOL is published four times a year by:

SYSTEM INTEGRATION

DBDH Stæhr Johansens Vej 38 DK-2000 Frederiksberg Phone +45 8893 9150

Total circulation: 5,000 copies in 50 countries

[email protected] www.dbdh.dk

ISSN 0904 9681 Layout: DBDH/galla-form.dk

Editor-in-Chief: Lars Gullev, VEKS

Pre-press and printing: Kailow Graphic A/S

Coordinating Editor: Kathrine Windahl, DBDH

E N E R G Y A N D E N V I R O N M E N T

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16

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provide you with the most intelligent, reliable and adaptable solutions possible. This approach has made us a preferred partner for district heating companies across the globe, and we look forward to helping you as well. To learn more go to www.grundfos.com/districtenergy

P4

By Lars Gullev, Managing Director VEKS and Chairman of DBDH THE COLUMN

CONVERSION TO RENEWABLE ENERGY MEANS INCREASED DEMAND FOR WELL-FUNCTIONING DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS

In this issue of Hot Cool, we focus on "System Integration" in the broader sense.

In recent years we have seen an increasingly focused transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in both the electricity and the district heating sector. In many countries, an increasing share of the electricity production is now based on the utilization of solar energy in the shape of solar cells and utilization of wind in the shape of large wind farms both off-shore and on land. Since there is often no correlation between the time of production of renewable electricity and the current consumption, there is a need to store the produced electricity. However, this remains a major challenge as the costs of storing electricity on a large scale are very high. Similarly, we also see in the district heating sector that renewable energy in the shape of biomass is gaining ground, just like the utilization of waste heat from the industry becomes increasingly important. In other district heating systems, electric heat pumps ensure that low value energy sources can be utilized in district heating systems. In many district heating systems, there are already today storage options in the form of heat accumulators, which are primarily used on a daily basis to ensure the balance between the district heating production and consumption. However, in recent years, we have seen more and more district heating systems where the heat storage capacity is much larger than to ensure balance on a daily basis. One example is the district heating system in Vojens, Denmark, where 70,000 m2 of solar collectors and a heat storage capacity of 200,000 m3 ensure that almost 50% of the annual heating consumption of Vojens District Heating Company’s customers can be met by renewable energy in the form of solar energy. Thus, we can see that already today the integration of not only the electricity and district heating systems, but also of the production of goods with utilization of waste heat, is taking place.

• In the article "The future of district heating and cooling networks - Intelligent controllers based on machine learning algorithms", we learn how waste heat from flooded mine shafts is used as energy storage for DHC networks. • "New roles of CHPs in the transition to a renewable energy system" - puts focus on the challenges that CHP plants will have in energy systems, in which a large part of the electricity production comes from wind power. • "The smart energy system integrates fluctuating renewable energy" focuses on how the district heating system can be utilized as storage for cheap electricity. • "System integration - Coordination on all levels" puts focus on the need to think across regional boundaries, municipal boundaries and borders between utilities, if we are to ensure an optimal system integration. • "A fairy tale of 100% efficient use of resources - the lifecycle of a citrus fruit from South America to Denmark" emphasizes the fact that a well-functioning district heating networks is a prerequisite for an effective resource utilization. If we are to succeed in the transition of our societies to more renewable energy, it is essential that we ensure well-functioning district heating systems. Without such systems, we will not be able to utilize waste heat from companies on a large scale; we will not be able to store solar heat from summer to winter and we will not be able to integrate the electricity system and the district heating system in the shape of large electric heat pumps, which utilize cheap wind-based power generation. I hope that these articles can be an inspiration to ensure an efficient use of our resources, with well-functioning district heating systems as part of the backbone of future energy systems – PLEASE ENJOY READING.

E N E R G Y A N D E N V I R O N M E N T

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P6

By Paul Voss, Managing Director, Euroheat and Power

its application in practice would be to simply increase prices and decrease system reliability, neither of which is particularly compatible with the EU’s ambitions in this field. The inclination of policy-makers to apply a model which they feel has worked in the case of the gas and electricity markets is understandable in principle, but this kind of impulse needs to be tempered by an understanding of the practical realities and highly specific nature of DHC networks. Cutting and pasting models from other sectors simply won’t work. Other areas of potential concern include the proposal to revise downward the factor used to determine the relative efficiency of electricity generation, continued uncertainty regarding the distinction between the notions of ‘customer’ and ‘final user’ with respect to metering and billing obligations for DHC providers, and insufficient clarity as to the placing of waste heat and cold on an equal footing with their renewable counterparts. And we’re only just getting started! What happens next? The publication of these proposals marks the beginning of a new phase for EHP and for the European district energy sector. Taken together, the numerous provisions on heating and cooling networks can be understood as an offer from the European Commission to our industry. They are effectively proposing to encourage our growth and development in exchange for assurances about our ability to deliver the best version of DHC; one that is green, affordable and consumer-friendly. To use a term from the Brexit debate, to refuse this offer would be an astonishing act of self-harm. Equally though, it is our right and obligation to negotiate the terms. It is important to distinguish between Commission proposals (what we have now) and final legislation (what we’ll have in a couple of years when the EU decision-making process has run its course). Working with legislators during this process to establish proportionate regulatory safeguards without compromising the commercial or technical viability of DHC networks around Europe will be the defining challenge of 2017 (and 2018 in all likelihood!) for EHP. With this inmind, EHP, together with ourmembers, will work closely alongside the European Council and Parliament throughout the process of transforming these draft proposals into finished pieces of legislation. It is our job to make sure that the Clean Energy for All Package is remembered not as an avalanche, a tsunami or a Death Star but as a catalyst for the further development of DHC as a solution to Europe’s environmental, strategic and economic challenges. It will be a busy, challenging and exciting time but we will approach this work with confidence and from a position of increasing strength. We’re looking forward to the journey and are quietly optimistic about the final destination!

Though it’s only been two months, it feels as though a lifetime has passed since the European Commission published its ‘Clean Energy for all Packages’. In the weeks leading up to the release of the package, it was compared to many different things, none of them particularly flattering. Whether it was a ‘tsunami’ an ‘avalanche’ or, my personal favourite, ‘the Death Star’, the one thing nearly everyone in Brussels seemed to agree on was that it would be big and potentially dangerous. Now that the dust has settled, we can confirm that the package is indeed BIG! Comprising more or less 4500 pages of legislative proposals, impact assessments and technical annexes, this isn’t something you’re going to want to bring to the beach! Whether or not it’s ‘dangerous’ is a rather more complex question. As we at Euroheat and Power (EHP) go through the process of working our way through the package’s many constituent documents, the picture we see emerging is predictably mixed, with opportunities and challenges for DHC blended together in equal measure. The good news is we will have many opportunities to improve the balance and sweeten the final results over the next two years. Personally, I see plenty of reasons for optimism. What we like! While there are literally thousands of details to consider, some key points of interest are already quite apparent. First and foremost, the package provides definitive proof that the heating sector in general and DHC in particular are no longer stuck in the margins of the EU policy debate. Heating and cooling networks are very much in the spotlight. There is more and more recognition of DHC’s potential to contribute to key European goals such as cutting GHG emissions, enhancing supply security and facilitating the increased update of renewables into the energy system. Similarly, the proposal to establish a home for DHC in the future Renewable Energy Directive is a clear and highly visible political signal that our technology is now understood as a driver of the energy transition rather than an alternative. We recognise in the proposals significant efforts on the part of the Commission to address EHP’s most pressing policy concerns, notably the explicit promotion of waste heat and cold and the fair treatment of ‘nearby’ energy supply (i.e. via DHC networks) relative to its on-site (building level) equivalent. Collectively, all of these positive signs tell us that the advocacy work we’ve taken as an industry in recent years has been worth the effort. They tell us that our voice can be heard and that the views of our industry count for something. What we like a little less… While the increased awareness of DHC is of course welcome, some of the proposals on the table will likely need to be refined if they are to deliver their stated objectives. An important example is the provision calling for opening of thermal networks to 3rd parties wishing to sell heat directly to customers. Although this is an interesting concept in principle, the likely effect of

For further information please contact:

Euroheat and Power Att.: Paul Voss

[email protected]

E N E R G Y A N D E N V I R O N M E N T

P7

By Brian Vad Mathiesen, Professor, Aalborg University

Magnus Dahl from AffaldVarme Aarhus and Aarhus University won for research proving that heat demand forecasting based on weather can help in high-risk situations where production and system operators have to be careful in their decision-making. His research also points into the future, as demand forecasting using weather patterns is able to lower supply temperatures at substation level and create better forecasting for purchase of electricity for electric boilers or heat pumps or heat from combined heat and power plants. I.e. it is possible to maintain a high security of supply while making the system more cost- effective by using more exact knowledge about short-term changes.

At the 2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating we gathered in a venue that is an old power plant. Here at Nordkraft, both oil and coal have been the source of electricity and heating for year on end. While the plant is now closed, it has meant district heating has been spread throughout the city of Aalborg. Here, as in most other places in European cities, the challenge in decarbonizing the heating sector is in focus.

In the 4DH Research Centre (www.4dh.eu), we found large potentials for energy savings to go hand in hand with new heat source from industrial waste heat, heat pumps and renewable energy. The potential role of district heating is uniquely large on a global scale, illustrated by speakers from e.g. UNEP, Japan and Korea. At the conference, we had a unique gathering of both researchers and industry within smart energy and district heating with almost 200 participants and more than 100 speakers. The purpose of the conference is to build capacity and new knowledge for the transformation of our heating systems towards renewable energy. At the conference, awards are given from Kamstrup and Danfoss together with a prize of EUR 1000 to a PhD fellow and a senior researcher or industrial expert. The candidates are carefully chosen by the award committee, and the committee then selects the winners among many excellent candidates. This year, I am proud to present and congratulate the two winners, who both in their own fields have created and communicated innovative results for the heating and energy efficiency community. Martin Crane from Carbon Alternatives in the UK won for a unique approach in the UK context to test district heating performance and promote lowering temperatures to reduce costs. As an example, variations in local conditions meant that the typical UK specifications should change for substations. The results are that almost all manufacturers that were involved have made modifications to their substations. Also the research resulted in new testing procedures to be adopted by the British Building Engineering Services Association.

The winners, as well as all the other speakers at our conference, demonstrated that smart energy systems and district heating researchers, as well as industry, are innovative and creative in striving for lower costs, energy savings and using waste heat and renewables. On 12-13 September 2017, the 3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating will take place at The National Museum of Denmark in Copenhagen. The Call for Abstracts is out now and I hope to see many of you there.

Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] For further information please contact:

www.dbdh.dk

J O U R N A L N 0 . 1 / 2 0 1 7

P8

By Magnus Dahl, industrial PhD fellow at AffaldVarme Aarhus and Aarhus University

I have applied this technique from meteorology to heat demand forecasting. I have obtained an ensemble forecast of the weather in Aarhus: 25 slightly different weather forecasts. This is a standard product sold by the Danish Meteorological Institute DMI as well as many other weather services around the world. The 25 forecasts are then fed through a model for predicting the heat demand based on the weather. The result is 25 slightly different heat demand forecasts that diverge and converge according to how uncertain we are on the weather forecast. Figure 1 illustrates this. Each grey curve represents the heat demand forecast in a different possible weather situation. The blue curve is the best prediction of the heat demand, based on the average weather forecast. With the ensemble heat demand forecasting tool in hand, we can begin to distinguish situations in which we are very certain of the heat demand and situations where our predictions could be far off.

It is possible to ensure security of supply while reducing economic risk. District heating production planners who are aware of the changing uncertainty in their forecasts make better decisions. In the following, I present a way to assess weather- related risks based on methods from weather forecasting. Any district heating production planner or system operator knows that heat demand forecasts are far from perfect. This is especially true for forecasts that reach more than a few hours into the future. When trading on the day-ahead electricity markets, production planners need forecasts for the following day. Forecasts on this time horizon often differ significantly from the realized heat demand. Therefore, creating realistic production plans and executing them is always a challenge. Both researchers and private companies are making efforts to improve heat demand forecasts. However, there is a limit as to how accurately it is possible to predict the heating demand of a city a few days into the future. This is why we at AffaldVarme Aarhus work actively with researchers from Aarhus University. Together, we assess the level of uncertainty that we are facing in the production planning and daily operation of the Aarhus district heating system. Since our knowledge of the future is never completely certain, we continuously estimate how uncertain our predictions are. When we are very certain of our predictions, it allows us to put more at stake in the decisions we make. When we are very uncertain, we need to exercise caution. Better knowledge of the operational risk we are facing leads to better decision making. Using more weather >Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30 Page 31 Page 32

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