Risk Services of Arkansas - July 2020

Risk Services of Arkansas - July 2020

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Beyond the Worst-Case Scenario

I n August of 2017, Hurricane Harvey devastated the Southeast United States and caused record-breaking flooding in Houston, Texas. I’m from Houston and I still have rental properties in the area. Three of my rental houses were flooded out. When I went down to assess the damage, I had to take a boat in order to reach one of the houses. Longtime readers of my newsletter might remember when I wrote about this experience and the lessons I learned. We all knew Houston had substantial risk of flooding. We never imagined how bad it could be. In the risk management business, we identify exposure to loss, then we try to determine the maximum possible loss in dollar terms. Basically, we have to ask, “How bad could it be?” After Houston, I learned that we had greatly underestimated how bad things could be in terms of flooding. No one had predicted that Houston could get 50 inches of rain in a 72-hour period, but that’s what happened in 2017. Hurricane Harvey expanded our idea of exactly how bad things could be. A paradigm change is something we’re seeing again during the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic has exposed a new loss for businesses that we had never anticipated before. I’m not talking about the virus — I’m talking about the government closing down businesses due to the threat of the virus and then doing it for an indeterminate amount of time. There are situations in which you might expect the government to close your business down for a few days. For example, when a hurricane is approaching in order to evacuate, or after a natural disaster, while the water recedes or access roads are repaired. Nobody could foresee that the government would shut folks down for

weeks, potentially even many months, based on the anticipation of an event and with the end date determined by them, not the business owner. From my little corner of the world, in a span of less than three years, we’ve seen two worst-case scenarios that were far worse than I ever anticipated. No one in Houston ever thought they would get that much water in such a short period of time. Likewise, I don’t think anyone anticipated that the government would shut businesses down for so long. How does a business prepare for that? I don’t believe insurance coverage for government mandated shutdowns will be available anytime in the near future. Even if it is, it is unlikely anyone will be able to afford the premiums for this kind of insurance at this point in time. So if a situation cannot be adequately or efficiently addressed through insurance, then other methods will need to come into play. In my opinion with what I know today, future pandemic situations will demand a mitigation-type solution. I’m thinking businesses will have to proactively manage the financial risk through a combination of lines of credit, other banking arrangements, or through their own balance sheet. Additionally, businesses will want to be creatively prepared to keep operating should their physical establishments be shut down. Is it possible that businesses that were deemed ”essential” this time might not be so fortunate next time? And finally, given that the government has now done this to us once, will they be more likely or less likely to do it again? To do this right, we should challenge our assumptions about how bad things could really be. We better prepare for the worst, then maybe prepare a little more ... ?

“Frommy little corner of the world, in a span of less than three years, we’ve seen two worst-case scenarios that were far worse than I ever anticipated.”

Specialized Insurance Programs for Specialized Industries. • www.INSURICA.com • 1

For over 40 years, CareLink, a private nonprofit, has served older Arkansans and their families. Their mission is to help older people remain active and independent by providing valuable resources. This includes meals and home care as well as legal advice or Medicare drug plan reviews. Luke Mattingly, president and CEO of CareLink, has been with the organization for 16 years and is extremely dedicated to the organization’s mission. “I’m blessed to have an awesome staff who work tirelessly to help older people, even during the pandemic,” Mattingly says. “We were up and operating through the whole COVID-19 pandemic as more and more older people reached out for help. I am so impressed by my team and their efforts to help older people remain healthy, independent, and in their homes for as long as possible. The people who stay on the team at CareLink are here because, like me, they love the mission. No matter how difficult the day has been, I can rest easy knowing my team has made a difference in the lives of the people we serve.” As a private nonprofit, CareLink relies on grants as well as their dedicated volunteers and generous donors to help further their mission. It’s only through this support that CareLink is able to make a remarkable difference in the lives of people in our community. “Sometimes, people don’t ask for help until their situation is really dire,” Mattingly says. “I remember one woman who was in her late 80s and had been living alone since her husband had passed away a decade before. She called us in February and when our care coordinator arrived at her house, they found that she’d put a shower curtain over the kitchen door and was using an electric hot pad to keep warm. Her gas line had broken and because she didn’t have the money to fix it, she’d been without heat for six months. She’d been using the hot pad to heat water to bathe and cook with. “CareLink was able to go in and, thanks to our emergency fund and the extreme generosity of one of our donors, we got in touch with the gas company, fixed the pipe, and got gas turned back on at this woman’s house. She had heat and her gas stove again. Stories like that really reach out to me and tell me how important CareLink is to help older people.” The remarkable thing about CareLink is that they are able to help folks on this level every day. Their team is out in people’s homes daily, helping with their personal hygiene, getting them from their wheelchair to their recliner, driving them to doctor’s appointments, and providing countless other services that sound so simple but make a world of difference.

HOWWELL ARE YOU TRACKING YOUR BUSINESS ?

In the last few months, the coronavirus pandemic has forced businesses across the country to tighten their belts. Odds are your company is among them, but even if you’re doing well, accurately tracking your business’s performance is more vital than ever. Of course, this is easier said than done. Even in good times, it’s difficult to know which key performance indicators (KPIs) to track daily, weekly, or monthly to get an accurate picture of how your business is doing. However, many successful entrepreneurs report that three KPIs rise to the top: churn, pipeline revenue, and average annual revenue per employee. Churn This metric will tell you how many customers leave your business in any given month, which will then tell you how many new customers you need to bring in the following month to break even. If you track this KPI weekly and monthly, patterns will start to emerge, and you’ll be able to find holes in your systems and processes more easily. Then, you can take proactive steps to reduce your churn. Pipeline Revenue Your pipeline revenue is the total sales volume you’d have if you won each and every piece of business you quoted over a given period of time. When compared with your actual sales volume each month, it becomes an incredibly valuable number for setting goals and tracking. For example, if you need to produce $100,000 in new pipeline revenue to close your goal of $30,000 in sales each month but are only at $54,000 in pipeline revenue 20 days into the month when you should be at $67,000, then you’ll know that you’re falling behind and need to make adjustments. Average Annual Revenue per Employee (RPE) Most companies with over $1 million in revenue make a minimum of $100,000 in average annual RPE, and it’s not uncommon to see small businesses making $125,000, $150,000, or $200,000-plus per hire, depending on the industry. The higher your RPE, the more effective your business is at maximizing its greatest resource: the people who work there. This number can become skewed or decrease if you’re growing quickly and hiring or if you’ve recently laid off staff. If you haven’t made changes and your RPE is under $100,000, you’re either overstaffed or facing a struggle ahead. As you’re tracking these KPIs, remember to be skeptical. If a metric looks too good to be true, it probably is! So dig in and double-check the math. If you uncover an inaccuracy, you can take steps to fix it, and if you find the number is accurate, you can learn from your successes. Armed with these metrics, you will be in a much better spot to be proactive in your business and solve minor problems before they ruin your month, quarter, or year. It’s a win-win situation, which is exactly what we need in these tough times! 3 Key Performance Indicators toWatch

Learn more about CareLink and how you can support their mission at CareLink.org .

2 • www.INSURICA.com • Specialized Insurance Programs for Specialized Industries.

DANGER ON THE ROAD CAN TECHNOLOGY REDUCE THE RISK OF TRUCKING ACCIDENTS?

A ccidents caused by large commercial trucks are on the rise. >Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4

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