the rennie landscape - Q3 2019

the rennie landscape - Q3 2019

Q3 2019

Dear Reader, In this edition of the rennie landscape, we continue to focus on local indicators of housing market health, while also acknowledging a variety of international headwinds that are creating uncertainty about the shorter- and longer-term trajectory of global economic growth. One consequence of rising investor unease around the world is a marked change in the landscape of interest rates, some of which have moved into negative territory in recent months. Against this backdrop, however, the Canadian and local Metro Vancouver economies continue to be resilient. More specifically, this region’s labour market is the strongest in Canada, posting year-over-year job gains that are the envy of other large metro areas. This in turn has pushed unemployment down to 4.0%, with wages responding to these tight labour market conditions by growing at a rate that's more than twice the national average. There is much more to explore in this edition of the landscape, which we hope becomes a dependable, strategic decision-making tool, whether you’re an individual home buyer or seller, developer, builder, municipal planner, or other market stakeholder or industry partner. Should you have any questions, the rennie intelligence team is here to assist. We look forward to hearing from you. Enjoy.

Ryan Berlin SENIOR ECONOMIST [email protected]

Andrew Ramlo VP, INTELLIGENCE [email protected]

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contents

04

ECONOMY

16

RATES

24

CREDIT & DEBT

30

DEMOGRAPHICS

36

HOUSING

44

POLICY

47

THE POCKET GUIDE

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economy

01. economy Canada remains one of the most affluent countries in the world, but must invest in its workers and technology to maintain its position.

PER CAPITA RICH, BUT A LOW GROWTH PITCH

Economic growth is often spoken of in the context of the whole, with policymakers and market watchers the world over referencing changes in countries’ gross domestic product (GDP, or the total value of all goods and services produced) as a means of assessing overall well-being. Curiously, there seems to be less of a focus on per capita GDP, which expresses how much countries produce after adjusting for the number of residents that live within their borders. The reality is that such a measure, and changes in it, are better indicators of the well-being of a country’s residents than overall GDP. When compared to our peers in the G20 (a club of 19 individual countries and the European Union), Canada fares well by this

measure, with a per capita GDP of $44,051 placing us in fifth in the rankings. Ahead of us are Australia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and of course, the United States—whose per capita GDP of $55,681 is 26% higher than it is in Canada. We should aspire to higher per capita GDP. However, with it growing by only 0.8% annually over the past 5 years—compared to 1.7% in the US and 6.3% in China�Canada’s economic well-being is improving relatively slowly. An aging demographic makes continued improvements that much more challenging and further reinforces the importance of investing in education and technology that together will help maintain our position among the world’s industrialized elites.

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economy

CANADA RANKS HIGH ON THE LIST OF RICH-COUNTRY PER CAPITA GDP

$60,000

$55,681

$50,000

$44,051

$40,000

$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

$6,899

$0

PAST YEAR GROWTH ANNUAL AVG.

6.4% 3.8% -0.3% -1.7% 6.3% 1.4% -1.4% -0.8% 3.2% 0.9% 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% -0.1% 1.7%

SOURCE: WORLD BANK >Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30 Page 31 Page 32 Page 33 Page 34 Page 35 Page 36 Page 37 Page 38 Page 39 Page 40 Page 41 Page 42 Page 43 Page 44 Page 45 Page 46 Page 47 Page 48 Page 49 Page 50 Page 51

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