the rennie outlook 2022

the rennie outlook 2022

rennie outlook 2022

RENNIE OUTLOOK 2022

This past year was once again a year of extremes. Fortunately, these extremes were—for the most part—less painful than those of 2020, when the pandemic suppressed our economy, our ability to travel, and the frequency with which we were with family and friends. Said extremes from 2021, which included record resale and pre-sale counts, historic job growth (or, more precisely, job recovery), and inf lation that we haven’t experienced in 20 years, were somewhat—how should we say it—“problematic” for the predictions we laid out at the beginning of last year as part of the 2021 rennie outlook. To be fair, we were fairly spot- on about some things (housing starts, wage growth, interest rates, and migration), but we were way off about others (see: housing market activity). Having here noted that we were previously “right” or “wrong” in our myriad predictions, we are behooved to also note that the value of providing the predictions contained herein lies not just in the numbers themselves, but also in the context and logic that we share that underpins the predictions. With that in mind, we hope you find this 2022 edition of the rennie outlook useful. For each element considered in this report, thedirectionof ourprediction is indicatedbyan increase over recent trends (an “up” arrow), no significant change (a “side-to-side” arrow), or a decrease (a “down” arrow).

table of contents .

2 INTRO 3 HOUSING 5 POPULATION 7 JOBS, INFLATION & INTEREST RATES

All the best in 2022, and stay safe.

RyanWyse Senior Analyst

Ryan Berlin Senior Economist & Director of Intelligence [email protected]

[email protected]

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